Thinking About Buying in Early 2027? Here’s What I See Coming in Oakland & Piedmont
The question I get most these days: how are rising mortgage rates affecting our inner East Bay market? The short answer is less than you’d think, but it depends on where you’re looking.
The Hottest Pockets: Expect More of the Same
If your 2027 resolution is to buy in Rockridge, Piedmont, Crocker Highlands, Glenview, or the North Berkeley flats, expect a market that looks a lot like 2026. Homes in these neighborhoods are regularly selling 40–60% over list price, with Rockridge leading the way. Many buyers here aren’t very sensitive to rates because they’re putting large amounts down or paying all cash.
A quick note on my numbers: I focus on the homes most buyers are actually shopping for. That means 2–4 bedrooms, 2–3 bathrooms, and roughly 1,200–2,500 square feet.
Expect bidding wars. List prices in these areas are often set low on purpose to draw interest, which can be jarring if you’re new to our market. The key is to ignore the “percent over asking” headline and focus on comps. When you know what similar homes have actually sold for, you can offer what the home is worth. Recently in Crocker Highlands, I’ve seen sales in the high $3 millions, and those sales will set the comps for the next round of similar homes.
The Next Tier: Competitive, but More Rate-Sensitive
In neighborhoods like Piedmont Ave, Upper Rockridge, Temescal, Oakmore, Poets Corner, and Dimond, I expect homes to keep selling around 20–30% over list. More buyers here are financing with 20–30% down, so rates hit them harder and they tend not to overbid as aggressively. That said, the occasional “unicorn” still closes at a number that leaves everyone’s jaw on the floor. I expect these areas to stay just as popular and competitive as they are today.
My Predictions for Early 2027
- More good homes will hit the market before spring. I listed two great homes in January 2026 with a lot of success, and I expect more sellers to try to get ahead of the spring rush.
- The top neighborhoods won’t cool down. Rockridge, Piedmont, and Crocker Highlands will keep drawing 40–60% over list, and rates won’t change that much.
- The second tier will hold steady at roughly 20–30% over list. These areas are the most likely to shift if rates move in either direction.
If you have your heart set on one of the most competitive neighborhoods, be ready to compete with clean terms and a strong price. If you have some flexibility, the next tier may give you more room to negotiate.
Happy house hunting!
— Fletcher Berke
Figures reflect my own analysis of recent sales of typical family homes in these neighborhoods. Every home and situation is different, so reach out for a neighborhood-specific take.